Abstract (MGIS Thesis)
The main objective of this study is to model the dispersion pattern of vehicular carbon monoxide
along Deerfoot Trail in Calgary by using CALINE4 software combined with GIS techniques. A
road network (14.28 km long), extending from south-east to north-east Deerfoot Trail, is
considered as the road segment under study. The study is broadly divided into three parts viz.
CALINE4 analysis, GIS analysis and S-PLUS analysis. The CALINE4 analysis involves two
different run type models to calculate 1-hour average CO concentrations at the receptors under
‘Standard’ run type model and then 8-hour average CO concentration under ‘Multi-Run/WorstCase
hybrid’ model. A typical day (June 1, 2006) is chosen to calculate 1-hour average CO
concentration at the receptors from 7:00 am to 6:00pm. The predicted CO is used to evaluate the
model by comparing to the observed values of CO at south-east monitoring station. The output
from standard run type model shows that the predicted CO concentration is mainly dependent on
wind speed and wind direction. The R-square value of 0.47 suggests that the model explained
47% of the original variability in the data. The predicted 8-hour average CO concentration from
7:00 am to 2:00 pm is used for interpolating the surface to predict the values of CO at unknown
locations within the study area. The predicted CO concentrations at the receptors are interpolated
using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Global Polynomial (GP), Ordinary Kriging (J-Bessel
model) and Universal Kriging (Spherical model) interpolation methods. The Oridnary Kriging
model is statistically more significant than the Universal Kriging model with lower Root Mean
Square (RMS) value of 0.32 and higher RMS standardized value of 0.92. However, the Trend
Surface Analysis shows the presence of first order trend in the data and the Geometric Anisotropy
shows the presence of anisotropy in the data. Therefore, Ordinary Kriging model uses a biased
estimator and is not reliable. The Universal Kriging model accounts for both trend and anisotropy
in the data. As such, it is the best model that can be used reliably for decision-making purposes.
This model has RMS and RMS standardized values of 0.33 and 0.87 respectively. The S-PLUS
analysis is used to validate the statistical significance of the GIS analysis and perform Universal
kriging. The Universal kriging model shows CO concentration ‘hot-spots’ especially around the
areas close to the highway.
Read entire thesis
Poster Presentation of MGIS Thesis (awarded as the best MGIS Poster from The Department of Geography at University of Calgary in 2010)
Read entire thesis
Poster Presentation of MGIS Thesis (awarded as the best MGIS Poster from The Department of Geography at University of Calgary in 2010)
